《保险研究》2013年第3期目录及摘要

相关链接：《保险研究》2013年第2期目录及摘要

            《保险研究》关注的研究方向(2013)

我国保险业国际竞争力研究

陈　虹　马永健

（武汉大学经济与管理学院，湖北 武汉 430072）

［摘　要］　改革开放以来，中国保险业取得了高速发展，但由于起步晚，基础差，其整体发展水平不高，同世界平均水平尚存在一定差距。选取比较优势指标对保险业国际竞争力进行现状分析和国际比较，结果表明中国保险业同发达国家存在较大差距，但差距不断缩小，竞争力逐步提升；基于波特的“钻石理论”，采用协整分析、误差修正模型等计量方法对中国保险业国际竞争力的影响因素进行了实证研究，结果表明人均国民收入和外商直接投资对保险服务出口的促进作用较大，金融服务出口和保险深度影响微弱，人力资本则没有发挥其应有的作用。
［关键词］　中国；保险业；国际竞争力；现状；实证研究

An Exponential Study on the International Competitive Competence of China’s Insurance Industry

Chen Hong,Ma Yongjian

(Economics and Management School of Wuhan University,Wuhan,Hubei 430072)

Abstract：China’s insurance industry has been growing rapidly ever since China adopted the reform and openingup policy. However,due to its late start and weak foundation,it is still quite underdeveloped and falls under the global average level. The paper selected comparative advantage indexes to analyze the international competitive competence of China’s insurance industry. The result showed that China’ s insurance industry still lagged behind developed countries by a wide margin,but the gap was narrowing and China’s competitiveness was edging up. Based on Porter’s “Diamond Theory”,it used such methods as cointegration analysis and error correction model to conduct an empirical study on affecting factors for competitiveness of China’s insurance industry. The result showed that per capita income and foreign direct investment significantly increased export of insurance service,while export of financial service and insurance penetration had weak effects and human capital failed to play its role.
Key words：insurance industry;international competitiveness;current situation;empirical analysis

公司治理机制对我国保险业风险与绩效的影响——基于我国保险行业2011年截面数据

夏　喆1　靳　龙2

（1湖北经济学院会计学院，湖北 武汉 430205；2湖北大学商学院，湖北 武汉 430062）

［摘　要］　利用2011年66家中资性质的保险公司年报数据和治理信息，从样本总体和按业务类型分类两个层面研究保险公司的治理结构对其风险控制和绩效水平的影响。实证回归结果表明，第一大股东持股比例、独立董事比例的提高对保险公司的风险管理有显著的正面影响，而治理机制对于保险公司的绩效改善则没有明显的帮助，甚至在寿险公司层面上董事会专业机构数量以及监事会规模的扩大甚至会对其绩效存在负面的影响。建议我国保险公司在公司治理机制的建设中不仅要单纯达到形式上的合规，更要着力加强实际运行中相关机制的有效性。
［关键词］　保险公司；公司治理；风险控制；绩效评价

The Relationship between Corporate Governance and Corporate Risk Management and Performance
—Based on crosssection data of Chinese insurance companies in 2011

Xia Zhe1，Jin Long2

(1.Hubei University of Economics,Wuhan,Hubei 430205;2.Hubei University,Wuhan,Hubei 430062)

Abstract：This paper researched 66 Chinese insurance companies＇annual reports and governance information in 2011. By using these data,it studied the relationship between corporate governance structure and corporate risk management and performance from the aspects of overall samples and business line classification.We found out that the shareholding increase of the largest shareholder and the ratio of independent director in board of directors would exert a positive impact on insurance companies risk management,while the corporate governance didn’t make a noticeable contribution to performance improvement. What’s more,in the case of life insurance companies,the increase of the number of board committees and the size of the board of supervisors would have a negative effect. With this conclusion,we pointed out that Chinese insurance companies should make a great effort on effectiveness of corporate governance rather than compliance in form.
Key words：insurance company;corporategovernance;riskmanagement;performance appraisal

基于Black-Litterman模型的保险资金动态资产配置模型研究

李心愉1　付丽莎2

（1北京大学经济学院，北京 100871；2中海石油化工进出口有限公司，北京 100010）

［摘　要］　本文以目前保险资金运用的现状和问题为背景，采用“两步法”研究保险资金的动态资产配置问题：首先，采用计量经济学方法建立结构方程模型，研究宏观经济与保险资金可运用的各资产收益率之间的定量关系；其次，借鉴BlackLitterman模型对不同时间区间的保险资金资产配置进行实证研究，并对最优资产配置结果进行比较。研究发现，在不同约束条件和不同时间区间下，最优资产配置不尽相同，但其收益-风险特征均优于市场组合。同时，时间区间越短，预测效力越高。据此，对BlackLitterman模型在保险资金运用领域的实用性进行了讨论，并对我国的保险投资实践提出了可行性建议。
［关键词］　保险资金；资产配置；宏观经济；BlackLitterman模型

Dynamic Insurance Asset Allocation Model Based on Black Litterman Model

Li Xinyu1，Fu Lisha2

(1.School of Economics Peking University,Beijing 100871;2. CNOOC Petroleum and Chemical Import & Export Company,Ltd.,Beijing 100010)

Abstract：In view of the present situation and problems of China’s insurance fund investment,this article employed the “twostep” method to research on the dynamic asset allocation for insurance funds. Firstly,by applying the methods of econometrics,it set up the structural equation model to establish the quantitative relationship between macro economy and the yields of various allowable investment vehicles. Secondly,it conducted an empirical analysis on insurance asset allocation during different time frames according to the  BlackLitterman model,trying to compare the results of optimal asset allocation.  It found out that the results were quite different in different constraints and different time intervals,but their riskreturn features were all superior to the general market portfolios. At the same time,the shorter the time interval,the more accurate the prediction was. Accordingly,this article discussed the practicality of the BlackLitterman model in the field of insurance fund investment and put forward feasible suggestions for China’s insurance fund investment practices.
Key words：insurance fund；asset allocation；macro economy；BlackLitterman Model

李心愉在《保险研究》上发表过的其他文章：

寿险对消费内需的作用机制研究

中国非寿险市场承保周期研究

保险综合经营：历史经验、重要启示与未来发展     

新会计准则下保险公司利源分析模型及应用

杜　辉1　杨玉波1　单小丹1　陈　戈2

(1泰康人寿保险股份有限公司，北京 100031；2中国国际金融有限公司，北京 100004)

［摘　要］　法定会计准则下利源分析报告在宏观层面进行监管决策和微观层面进行业务管理及绩效评估等方面发挥了重要作用。然而，随着新会计准则正式实施和执行，法定会计准则下利源分析报告的局限性日趋凸显出来，而目前国内尚没有相关文献对新会计准则下利源分析的理论和实务问题进行论述。鉴于此，基于新会计准则下的利润，对新会计准则下利源分析的基本框架进行研究，并在此基础上进行理论推导，建立利源分析模型，最后以典型的两全分红保险为例进行实务分析。结果表明，当实际经营情况与预期一致时，利润由剩余边际和风险边际产生；当实际经营情况与预期不一致时，利润由剩余边际、风险边际和经验偏差组成。
［关键词］　新会计准则；利源分析；边际；经验偏差

Modeling and Practice of Profit Analysis under New China GAAP

Du Hui1,Yang Yubo1,Shan Xiaodan1,Chen Ge2

(1. Taikang Life Insurance Co. Ltd.,Beijing 100031; 2. China International Capital Co. Ltd.,Beijing 100004)

Abstract：Statutory profit analysis plays an important role in regulatory policy at macro level as well as business management and performance evaluation at micro level. However,along with the implementation and execution of the New China GAAP,the limitation of statutory profit analysis under rule principle becomes evident. In consideration of the lack of relevant document on modeling and practice of CGAAP profit analysis,a basic framework of China GAAP profit analysis was constructed,based on which relevant theories were derived. The paper also made a practical analysis,taking an endowment insurance product as an example. In the end it concluded that,profit was derived from residual margin and risk margin when the actual situations were consistent with expectations. Otherwise,profit came from residual margin,risk margin and experience biases.
Key words：China GAAP；profit analysis；margin；experience analysis

陈戈在《保险研究》上发表过的其他文章：

企业年金投资的投资目标与资产配置

保险公司负债公允价值的评估

论保险公司经济资本

养老保险制度不同模式的参数比较分析   

非寿险最低偿付能力资本研究

李冰清1　张　艳1　王晶晶2

（1南开大学风险管理与保险学系，天津 300071；2泰康人寿保险股份有限公司,北京 100031）

［摘　要］　偿付能力监管作为保险业监管的三大支柱之一，越来越受到监管部门的重视。中国保险业的监管系统结合了欧盟和美国的监管方法，制定了我国保险公司的偿付能力监管措施。但是由于我国保险业不断发展壮大，旧有偿付能力监管体系相关参数的调整具有时滞，不能准确及时反映我国保险公司偿付能力情况。通过回顾非寿险公司最低偿付能力资本设置原理，基于我国18家营业时间长于5年的财产保险公司的经营数据，本文重新估计了非寿险偿付能力监管体系中的相关参数，并进行了一定调整，使之更适应当前市场环境。
［关键词］　最低偿付能力资本；非寿险；保险监管

Study on Minimum Capital Requirement for General Insurance

Li Bingqing1，Zhang Yan1，Wang Jingjing2

(1. Risk Management and Insurance Department of Nankai University,Tianjin 300071;2Taiking Life Insurance Company Ltd.,Beijing 100031)

Abstract：Solvency supervision as one of the three pillars of insurance regulation has had more and more attention of the regulatory authorities. China’s insurance regulatory system is a combination of EU and U.S. regulatory approaches,and has developed a number of measures to ensure the solvency of insurance companies. However,due to China’s insurance industry’s rapid expansion,the old solvency system parameters cannot accurately reflect the solvency standing of the insurance company in a timely manner.With a review of the principle for setting minimum solvency capital of nonlife insurance companies,and based on the experience data of 18 domestic P & C insurance companies with operating history longer than 5 years,this paper reestimated the parameters in the nonlife insurance solvency regulation system,and suggested some readjustment in order to make it more adapted to the current market environment.
Key words：minimum solvency capital;nonlife insurance;insurance supervision

李冰清在《保险研究》上发表过的其他文章：

变额年金业务的风险度量与分析

企业年金投资的投资目标与资产配置

基于剩余收益的寿险公司内含价值评估方法研究

基于极大似然估计的中国拆借市场短期利率模型实证研究

寿险公司死亡率风险管理研究

内含价值在寿险公司价值评估中的应用误区及修正

保险与金融工程的比较研究

我国财产保险公司规模经济研究

高树棠　张宗军

（兰州商学院金融学院，甘肃 兰州 730020）

［摘　要］　2000年以来我国保险行业进入保险公司数量快速扩容、保险公司规模高速扩张的时期。运用超越对数成本函数，对31家具有代表性的财险公司2005年～2010年期间的规模经济状况进行了检验。实证结果表明我国财险公司的规模经济效应与其经营的时间、产权结构、增长速度、产品结构等具有很大的联系，这为我国财险公司调整经营策略、转变发展模式提供了依据。
［关键词］　财险公司；规模经济；超越成本函数

An Empirical Study on the Economies of Scale in China’s Property Insurance Industry

Gao Shutang，Zhang Zongjun

(Lanzhou University of Finance and Economics,Lanzhou,Gansu 730020）

Abstract：Since 2000,China’s insurance industry has witnessed a rapid increase of insurance companies and a fast expansion of business volume. The article applied the translog cost function method to test the scale of economy factor of 31property insurance companies during the period of 2005 to 2010.The empirical results showed that the economies of scale linked closely to the company’s operating time,the nature of property rights,the growth rate and the product structure. This provided a basis for the property insurance company to adjust business strategy and to change the development model.
Key words：property insurance companies；economies of scale；the translog cost function

张宗军在《保险研究》上发表过的其他文章：

寿险业退保行为及其影响因素实证研究

中国财产保险需求的影响因素研究——基于险种结构的动态分析

基于公共性基础上的巨灾保险制度研究

新会计准则下我国财产保险公司资产负债管理研究

张连增　戴成峰

（南开大学经济学院风险管理与保险学系，天津 300071）

［摘　要］　新会计准则对财产保险公司资产负债管理的影响研究是一个具有现实意义的课题。自2007年以来，我国财产保险行业的会计准则发生了较大的变化，并在一定程度上影响着财产保险公司的资产负债管理。本文较为系统地研究了我国财产保险行业新会计准则的主要变化，及其对资产负债管理可能产生的影响；在此基础上提出了新准则下财产保险公司资产负债管理的原则，及利用动态财务分析的方法解决资产负债管理问题的构想，并对操作流程进行了较为详细地论述。
［关键词］　财产保险公司；新会计准则；资产负债管理

Study on AssetLiability Management under New China GAAP

Zhang Lianzeng，Dai Chengfeng

(Department of Risk Management and Insurance,School of Economics,Nankai University,Tianjin 300071)

Abstract：Studying the impact of new China GAAP on asset liability management in property insurance company is a subject with practical significance. Since 2007 there have been substantial changes in GAAP of property insurance industry in China,which affected the implementation of asset liability management to some extent. In this paper we systematically analyzed these major changes in the new China GAAP and their potential impacts on property insurance companies. Based on these analyses,the author proposed some rules of asset liability management for property insurance companies under the new China GAAP,suggested using dynamical financial analysis to solve asset liability management problem,and demonstrated the process in details.
Key words：property insurance company;new China GAAP;asset liability management

张连增在《保险研究》上发表过的其他文章：

我国财产保险区域差异与宏观经济的关系研究——基于省际面板数据的实证分析

车险索赔概率影响因素的Logistic模型分析

行驶里程数对车险净保费的影响研究——基于公路里程对交通事故损失的影响视角

国外车险里程定价理论与实践

中国人口老龄化对人身保险市场发展的影响分析——基于省际面板数据的经验分析

从会计角度看非寿险公司日比例法准备金

戴成峰在《保险研究》上发表过的其他文章：

我国财产保险区域差异与宏观经济的关系研究——基于省际面板数据的实证分析

我国财产保险公司理财险业务经营策略探析

论财产保险公司的资产负债管理与资金运用

论财产保险公司应收保费的管理    

我国车险市场承保周期研究——基于费率管制与市场准入限制的影响

于丽娜

（中国人民大学财政金融学院，北京 100872）

［摘　要］　对车险承保周期的研究，传统上是从“价”的角度着手，以单位价格（保费/赔付额）和承保利润率为指标，来考察承保周期的波动特征。然而，我国车险市场中存在两个特殊的局限条件：费率管制和市场准入限制。费率管制的存在，使保费收入不能反映车险业务的真实情况，从而以保费为基础的传统研究指标也不能用于对我国车险市场的研究。基于此，本文转换分析的角度，从“量”入手，以赔付额来描述车险市场的承保周期。研究发现，我国车险市场存在承保周期，周期平均长度为533年，并且市场准入限制是影响车险承保周期的重要原因。
［关键词］　承保周期；市场局限条件；赔付额

Underwriting Cycles of China’s Autoinsurance Market:The Impacts of Premium Rate Control and Market Entry Restrictions

Yu Lina

(The School of Finance，Renmin University of China,Beijing 100872)

Abstract：Studies on the underwriting cycles of autoinsurance markets usually focuses on the price (premium) factor,using unit price,i.e. premium to claims payout,and underwriting profits to track the cyclical fluctuation of business underwriting. However,there are two restrictive conditions unique to China’s auto insurance market: premium rate control and market entry restriction. The existence of price controls lead to the situation that premium income doesn’t reflect the market situation accurately. Therefore premiumbased traditional research indicators cannot be applied to China’s autoinsurance market. Accordingly,though proceeding from “volume”,this paper adopted a new approach using the claims payout to depict the underwriting cycle of autoinsurance market. This paper found out that there existed an underwriting cycle in China’s auto insurance market,and the average length of the cycle was 5.33 years. Moreover,the market entry restriction was a main affecting factor to the underwriting cycle.
Key words：underwriting cycles;market limitations;claims payout   

北京市涉农小额信贷保证保险费率测算

郭心义1　郝博雯2　赵　乐3

（1北京农业职业学院财会金融系，北京 100093；2 中国人民大学财政金融学院，北京 100872；3 北京市农村工作委员会，北京 100053）

［摘　要］　涉农小额信贷保证保险制度在一定程度上能够解决广大农民、种养大户、涉农中小企业及相关合作组织贷款难的问题，而涉农小额信贷保证保险费率的测算则是涉农小额信贷保证保险制度实施阶段的一个最主要的技术瓶颈。本文在信用风险度量术的基础上，利用尹成远教授开发的中小企业保证保险定价机制的费率厘定模型，根据北京市涉农小额信贷业务的相关数据对基于信用风险度量术的保证保险费率厘定模型进行了实证分析，得出了较为合理的北京市涉农小额信贷保证保险费率。同时，对北京市实施涉农小额信贷保证保险提出了两个建议方案。
［关键词］　涉农小额信贷保证保险;费率厘定;信用风险度量术

Measurement on the Premium Rate of Agriculturerelated Microcredit Guarantee Insurance in Beijing

Guo Xinyi1,Hao Bowen2,Zhao Le3

(1. The Apartment of Finance and Accounting of Beijing Vocational College of Agriculture,Beijing 100093;2.  Renmin University of China the School of Finance,Beijing 100872;3. Beijing Municipal Commission of Rural Affairs,Beijing 100053)

Abstract：Agriculturerelated microcredit guarantee insurance system is able to resolve the lack of access to loans for the majority of farmers,large planting and breeding farms,agriculturerelated small and medium enterprises and related cooperation organizations to some extent. But setting the premium rate for agriculturerelated microcredit guarantee is the crucial bottleneck during the implementation phase of the microcredit guarantee insurance system. Based on the credit risk measurement model,and the ratemaking model for the SME guarantee insurance pricing mechanism developed by professor Yin Chengyuan,the paper conducted an empirical study of the guarantee insurance ratemaking model based on the credit risk measurement  technique,taking into account the agriculturerelated microcredit data in Beijing.It arrived at a reasonable premium rate for agriculturerelated microcredit guarantee insurance in Beijing. It also  put forward two implementation proposals for agriculturerelated microcredit guarantee insurance in Beijing.
Key words：agriculturerelated microcredit guarantee insurance;ratemaking;the credit risk measurement technique

郭心义在《保险研究》上发表过的其他文章：

论政策性农业保险制度的建立——北京市政策性农业保险实践探索

赵乐在《保险研究》上发表过的其他文章：

北京市农业区域产量保险研究

论政策性农业保险制度的建立——北京市政策性农业保险实践探索

寿险企业成长模型：基于Gibrat法则的实证检验

李秀芳　卞小娇　安　超

（南开大学经济学院，天津 300071）

［摘　要］　寿险企业的可持续发展是业界和学术界关注的热点问题。本文从理论分析、案例分析和实证分析三方面探讨寿险企业的发展规律，构建以Gibrat法则为基础的成长模型，基于2004年～2011年33家寿险公司非平衡面板数据检验企业规模与成长的关系，通过分位数回归法分析在不同规模下影响企业成长的因素。结果发现：小规模企业的成长接近Gibrat法则，大规模企业的成长偏离Gibrat法则；中大规模企业获利率与企业成长显著负相关；企业年龄对企业成长的影响不显著；市场占有率的提高显著促进大规模企业成长；费用率过高在初期成为制约公司发展的主导因素；退保率对公司成长的影响显著为负，这种负向影响随着企业规模增大而增大。
［关键词］　Gibrat法则;企业成长;寿险业;分位数回归

The Growth Model of Life Insurance Companies: Based on the Empirical Test of the Gibrat Law

Li Xiufang，Bian Xiaojiao，An Chao

(Department of Risk Management and Insurance,School of Economics,Nankai University,Tianjin 300071)

Abstract：Sustainable development of the life insurance companies is a hot issue in the industry and the academia. This paper studied the law of development of life insurance enterprises by means of theoretical analysis,case study and empirical analysis,and built a growth model based on the Gibrat Law. Based on 20042011 unbalanced panel data of 33 life insurance companies,it also tested the relationship between firm size and growth,and analyzed factors affecting the growth of life insurance companies of different sizes according to Quantile regression method. The results showed that: the growth of smallscale enterprises was close to Gibrat law,but the growth of largescale enterprises deviated from the Gibrat law;profitability and business growth of medium to largescale enterprises were in significant negative correlations;firm age didn’t have significant impact on firm growth;increasing market share significantly promoted growth of largescale enterprises;high expense ratio was the dominant factor restricting firm growth in the early stage;lapse rates was significantly negative on the company’s growth,and this negative impact increased as firm size increased.
Key words：the Gibrat Law;firm growth;life insurance industry;Quantile regression

李秀芳在《保险研究》上发表过的其他文章：

多目标规划在保险公司决策管理中的应用研究——以产险公司业务和资产结构决策为例

中国非寿险业承保利润周期根源探析

内含价值方法应用局限性探析

我国保险市场的现状及其发展趋势

论我国寿险业的险种创新

寿险公司偿付能力监管的有效性研究

基于DEA方法的我国财产保险公司技术效率分析

基于数据挖掘的保险客户风险—贡献评级管理

刘晓葳

（厦门大学经济学院，厦门 361005）

［摘　要］　保险公司的经营特性决定其成本与收益主要源于理赔支出与保费收入，也从而决定了保户风险、贡献分析是保险公司成本-收益管理的重要部分。数据挖掘方法从投保人意愿透露的特征信息入手，从风险与贡献的双重角度提取客户特征，实现客户细分，使企业得以通过评级管理等手段实现其风险控制及利润最大化要求。本文采用罗吉斯回归、CHAID模型、CART模型以及Aprior算法等方法对台湾某知名保险公司21年间客户特征、客户保单、理赔信息等资料进行综合挖掘，以获得具备风险及贡献指向性的客户特征变量，基于精确性与增益度进行模型比较，获取挖掘结果，构建客户风险-贡献特征矩阵，进而提出相应的保险公司管理策略。
［关键词］　数据挖掘；保险；风险-贡献特征矩阵；分类评级

Riskcontribution Rating Management of Insurance Customers Based on Data Mining

Liu Xiaowei

(School of Economics of Xiamen University,Xiamen 361005）

Abstract：The operating characteristics of insurance companies determine that their costs and benefits mainly arise from claims payments and premiums，so the client riskcontribution analysis is the core of the cost and revenue management of them. Data mining methods can abstract both risk and contribution features of customers to build a risk contribution matrix to achieve the aim  of customer segmentation and meet the management needs of riskminimizing and profitsmaximizing. Using the logistic regression,the CHAID model,the CART model and the Aprior data mining algorithm on 21year annual data of a wellknown Taiwan insurance company,in aspects of customer profiling,customer policies and claims information,the paper intended to obtain customer characteristic variables that could reveal risk and contribution features. Then,based on consideration of accuracy and the gain degree of each model,the paper built up a creditable riskcontribution matrix to classify customers and to provide strategic advice.
Key words：sdata mining;insurance;riskcontribution features matrix；contribution rating

退休职工养老保险满意度影响因素研究

钱锡红　申曙光

（中山大学岭南学院，广东 广州 510275）

［摘　要］　在养老保险的研究中，参保人的满意度研究是一个非常重要的议题，但目前学术界很少从微观层面来探讨退休职工养老保险满意度的影响因素。本文从参保人的角度对养老金满意度展开研究，并收集南方五省退休职工2 772份有效问卷进行实证分析，取得了一些有意义的研究结果：养老金满意度受参保人健康状况、养老金水平、家庭财产的正向影响，而参保年限、支出状况与养老保险满意度之间呈负相关关系；退休前工资对养老保险满意度的影响不大，但退休前任职级别却与养老保险满意度有负相关关系；参保人的婚姻状况与配偶的经济收入状况也对参保人的养老保险满意度产生重要影响。本研究对完善我国养老保险制度有重要启示，也可为相关政策实施提供决策依据。
［关键词］　养老保险；养老金；满意度；影响因素

An Empirical Study on the Influencing Factors of Retirees’ Pension Satisfaction

Qian Xihong，Shen Shuguang

（Lingnan College , Sun Yatsen University, Guangzhou, Guangdong 510275）

Abstract：Within the research of retirement insurance, the retirees’　satisfaction over the pension is a very important issue, but still the academia has rarely explored the influencing factors of retired employees’ satisfaction over pension from a micro level. This paper studied the influencing factors of pension satisfaction from a micro level of the insured retirees, based on 2772 valid questionnaires from five southern provinces for the empirical analysis. It made some meaningful conclusions as follows: firstly, pension satisfaction was positively affected by the health condition, pension level, and family property of the insured person, while the length of insured years and expenditure situation were negatively associated with pension satisfaction; secondly, preretirement wage had little effect on pension satisfaction, while the position level before retirement exhibited a negative correlation with pension satisfaction; thirdly, the insured person’s marital status and his/her spouse’s economic income also had an important impact on satisfaction. This study is of important revelation to improve the retirement insurance system in China, and can also provide decision making basis for related policy implementation.
Key words：retirement insurance; pension; satisfaction; influencing factors

钱锡红在《保险研究》上发表过的其他文章：

在职人员的社会经济地位对退休期望的影响

申曙光在《保险研究》上发表过的其他文章：

通货膨胀与工资增长：调整我国基本养老金的新思路与系统方案

在职人员的社会经济地位对退休期望的影响

新型农村合作医疗制度对农民健康影响的实证研究

社会医疗保险政策对医疗服务需求影响效应的实证研究—基于广东省云浮市参保群体的分析

万能寿险内在收益率测算与影响因素分析

美国特有的一种医疗保险模式介绍

新农合对农户商业医疗保险需求影响的研究

许　荣1,2　张　迪1　吉　学1

（1中国人民大学财政金融学院,北京 100872；2中国财政金融政策研究中心,北京 100872）

［摘　要］　已有研究关于新型农村合作医疗对农户商业医疗保险的影响是挤出效应还是促进效应存在争论。基于中国健康和营养调查（China Health and Nutrition Survey，CHNS）2004年~2009年的数据，运用双重差分（DID）方法和probit模型实证考察了农户商业医疗保险购买的影响因素以及新农合的快速推广对商业医疗保险需求的影响。实证结果发现，新农合与商业医疗保险之间先是替代关系，而后转为互补关系；并且年龄、是否患有慢性病、家庭规模和家庭收入对于商业医疗保险的需求均有着显著的负向影响，实证证据支持农户在商业医疗保险的购买中存在一定程度的逆向选择。
［关键词］　新农合；商业医疗保险；多层次医疗保障体系；逆向选择

A Research on the Effects of NCMS on the Rural Demand for Commercial Medical Insurance

Xu Rong1,2，Zhang Di1，Ji Xue1

(1School of Finance of Renmin Univ of China,Beijing 100872;2China Financial Policy Research Center of Renmin Univ of China,Beijing 100872)

Abstract：There are debates on whether the Newtype Rural Cooperative Medical Care System(NCMS) crowds out or improves the rural demand for commercial medical insurance among existing research literature.  Based on the data sets from 2004 to 2009 initiated by China Health and Nutrition Survey(CHNS),we used Difference in Difference method (DID) and probit model to investigate the factors affecting rural demands for commercial medical insurance and the effects of NCMS.  The empirical results revealed that the NCMS and the commercial medical insurance changed from substitutes to complements.  Furthermore,age,having chronic disease or not,family size and household income all had significant negative effects on the demand for commercial medical insurance,which supported the existence of adverse selection in commercial medical insurance. 
Key words：NCMS;commercial medical insurance;multilevel medical security system;adverse selection

许荣在《保险研究》上发表过的其他文章：

董事责任保险与公司治理机制的互动影响研究——来自中国A股上市公司的证据