相关链接:《保险研究》关注的研究方向(2013)
巨灾风险可保性研究
田 玲1 邢宏洋1 高 俊2
(1武汉大学经济与管理学院,湖北 武汉 430072;2清华大学经济管理学院,北京 100084)
[摘 要]以近年来巨灾保险相对萎缩的现实为背景,通过界定风险可保性来分析巨灾风险的可保性内涵以及影响巨灾风险可保性的因素。在此基础上,基于破产理论找出了巨灾风险的可保性边界,并给出了拓展巨灾风险可保性边界的政策建议。研究认为:巨灾风险的模糊性、低频高损失、难以聚合以及保险人的偿付能力、管理能力和经营目标等因素都可能会影响巨灾风险的可保性。具体而言,巨灾风险的可保性边界主要由保险人的初始资本金和保费附加共同决定,初始资本金越大、保费附加越高,巨灾风险的可保性边界就越宽,保险人的承保范围就越大。因此,通过提高保险人对巨灾风险认识、提高保险人的财务实力、对巨灾保险进行保费补贴、分保、共保以及通过资本市场和公共部门对巨灾风险进行融资均有助于扩大巨灾风险的可保性。
[关键词]巨灾风险;可保性;破产理论;模糊性;可保性边界拓展
Insurability of Catastrophe Risk
Tian Ling1,Xing Hongyang1,Gao Jun2
(1Economics and Management School,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430072;2School of Economics and Management,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084)
Abstract:Based on the facts of the decrease of catastrophe insurance in recent years,we discussed the connotation of catastrophe risk insurability and affecting factors through defining the insurability of risksFurthermore,we defined the boundary of catastrophe insurability on the basis of the ruin theory and offered some policy suggestions on how to expand the boundaryFactors such as ambiguity,low probability and large loss,and difficulty to pool the risk of catastrophes,and insurer’s constraints of solvency,management skills and business targets could all have a negative influence on the insurance of catastrophe riskSpecifically speaking,the insurability boundary of catastrophe was determined by the initial capital and premium loading of the insurerThe higher the initial capital and the larger the premium loading,the wider the boundary would beTherefore,to expand the boundary of the insurability for catastrophe risk,we should enhance the awareness for catastrophe,strengthen the insurer’s financial capacity,offer premium subsidy on catastrophe insurance,utilize reinsurance and coinsurance operations,as well as raise fund through the capital market public institutions. All these should help to expand the insurability of catastrophes
Key words:catastrophe riskst; insurability; ruin theory; ambiguity; boudary expansion for the insurability
田玲在《保险研究》上发表过的其他文章:
高俊在《保险研究》上发表过的其他文章:
我国随机死亡率的长寿风险建模和衍生品定价
田 梦 邓颖璐
(清华大学经济管理学院,北京 100084)
[摘 要]长寿风险近年来对各国保险业、养老金体系、社会保障体系造成大规模影响,成为保险和风险管理学术界关注和研究的重点。采用国际前沿的研究方法,系统深入地采用中国数据研究这一问题。在Lee-Carter模型的基础上,通过双指数跳跃扩散模型对Lee-Carter模型中的时间序列因子进行拟合,较好地刻画了中国人口死亡率的长寿跳跃和死亡跳跃;引用Swiss Re死亡债券度量长寿风险的市场价格,预估未来中国人口死亡率,并得出了寿险衍生品Q型远期的中国定价。
[关键词]长寿风险;死亡风险;证券化;双指数跳跃扩散模型
Longevity Risk Modeling and Derivatives Pricing Based on China Mortality Rate
Tian Meng,Deng Yinglu
(School of Economics and Management,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084)
Abstract:Longevity risk has significant impact on insurance industry,pension system and social security system in developing and developed countries,therefore it has become the focus of study by both the academic society for insurance and risk managementThis paper conducted a comprehensive research to this question on the basis of relevant data from ChinaIt adopted the LeeCarter framework and introduced a double exponential jump diffusion model to fit the timeseries index with mortality data from year 1982 to 2009This model captured both asymmetric rate jumps up and down and also cohort effect in mortality trendsThen the paper used Swiss Re Mortality Catastrophe Bond to measure the market price of longevity risk and provided a channel to forecast future Chinese mortality ratesAt the end,the paper applied the model to obtain the pricing of qforward,a forefront longevity security
Key words:longevity risk; mortality risk; securitization; double exponential jump diffusion model
新监管环境下我国保险公司资本保证金制度的完善
曹顺明1 王雪丹1 周瑜婕2
(1 中国再保险(集团)股份有限公司,北京 100034;2 北京大学法学院,北京 100871)
[摘 要]我国资本保证金制度建立于改革开放初期,在当时不仅必要,而且事实上在保障保单持有人利益免于因保险公司偿付不能而受损方面发挥了重要作用。随着我国保险监管的日益完善,特别是偿付能力监管体系的建立健全、责任准备金制度的完善及保险保障基金的建立,有必要就资本保证金制度的完善进行探讨。本文在比较境内外资本保证金制度及深入分析我国资本保证金制度完善的必要性与可能性的基础上,从资本保证金提取数额、存在形式、例外情况处理等角度就完善我国资本保证金制度提出了具体的完善建议。
[关键词]资本保证金;偿付能力;保险保障基金
View on the Improvement of Capital Security Deposit System under New Regulatory Environment
Cao Shunming1, Wang Xuedan1,Zhou Yujie2
(1China Reinsurance (Group) Company Limited, Beijing 100034;2Peking University Law School,Beijing 100871)
Abstract:The Capital Security Deposit System in China was established in the early era of reform and openingupIt’s not only necessary to do so then, but this system has played an important role in protecting policyholders’ interest from being hurt by insurers’ insolvencyWith the improvement of China\'s insurance supervision system,especially the establishment of the solvency regulation system and insurance guarantee fund and the perfection of premium reserving system,it is necessary to review the Capital Security Deposit System for its further perfectionThis paper compared domestic and overseas Capital Security Deposit Regulation,and carried out an indepth analysis about the necessity and possibility of further improving the current systemAnd on this basis,the paper made specific suggestions on how to improve on the Capital Security Deposit System from the perspectives of the amount,the form,and handling of irregular situations
Key words:capital security deposit; solvency; insurance guarantee fund
曹顺明在《保险研究》上发表过的其他文章:
我国保险业对利率政策的反应研究
张细松1 刘素春2
(1山东财经大学公共管理学院,山东 济南 250014;2山东财经大学保险学院,山东 济南 250014)
[摘 要]利率政策主要通过保险承保业务和投资业务对保险业产生影响。为研究我国保险业务对利率政策的反应,运用面板数据模型、格兰杰因果关系检验、脉冲响应函数和方差分解分析方法。实证检验表明:财产保险和人寿保险承保业务和投资业务对利率政策工具的反应系数不一样;利率政策工具并不全是保险承保业务和投资业务的格兰杰原因;对利率政策工具的冲击,保险承保业务和投资业务的响应不一样,利率政策工具对其影响的贡献度也不一样。最后提出几点规避保险业务利率风险的政策建议。
[关键词]承保业务; 投资业务;利率政策工具;影响机理
Study on the Reaction of Insurance Business to Interest Rate Policy in China
Zhang Xisong1, Liu Suchun2
(1School of public management,Shandong University of Finance and Economics,Jinan 250014; 2School of insurance,Shandong University of Finance and Economics,Jinan 250014)
Abstract:Interest rate policy affects insurance industry mainly through underwriting business and investment businessIn order to analyze the reaction of insurance business to interest rate policy in China,the paper applied the methods of Panel Data model and Granger Causal Relationship Testing,Impulse Response Function and Variance DecompositionEmpirical tests indicated that the reaction coefficients of business underwriting and investment to interest rate policy tools was different between property insurance business and life insurance business; interest rate policy was not all the Granger cause of underwriting and investment businesses; the response of underwriting business and investment business to interest rate policy was different and the contribution of interest rate policy vehicles to them also differedFinally,the paper made a few suggestions on how to avoid the interest rate risk for the insurance business
Key words:underwriting business; investment business; interest rate policy tools; impact mechanism
刘素春在《保险研究》上发表过的其他文章:
我国寿险公司资产配置研究
徐景峰 朱浩然
(中央财经大学保险学院,北京 100081)
[摘 要]本文研究寿险公司的最优资产配置问题。与以往研究不同,本文基于寿险公司收益率分布的实证考察,结合法律法规对寿险资产投资的限制,建立寿险公司资产配置模型。首先建立保险公司的收益模型,以及投资比例和在险价值模型。为了完成对目标函数的刻画,利用水晶球软件对风险资产收益率序列进行分布匹配测试,分析收益率序列分布假设;最后,利用MATLAB优化软件包计算中国人寿的最优资产比例,并与其实际配置进行了比较分析。
[关键词]资产配置;收益率;在险价值;分布匹配测试
Research on Asset Allocation of Life Insurance Companies in China
Xu Jingfeng,Zhu Haoran
(Central University of Finance and Economics,School of Insurance,Beijing 100081)
Abstract:This paper studied the optimal asset allocation of life insurance companiesUnlike previous studies,this paper,based on an exponential analysis of the distribution of investment yields of life insurance companies, established the asset allocation model of life insurers with full consideration of legal restrictions on the investment of life insurance assetsFirstly,the article set up the insurance company income model and investment percentages and the value at risk modelSecondly,it used the crystal ball software to make a matching test of the risky assets yield sequence and analyzed the total yield sequence distribution assumptionFinally,it applied the MATLAB optimization package to calculate the optimal asset allocation of China Life and made a comparative analysis of its actual portfolio
Key words:asset allocation; yield; value at risk; distribution matching tests
徐景峰在《保险研究》上发表过的其他文章:
我国保险公司经营绩效综合评价
孙 蓉 王 超
(西南财经大学保险学院,四川 成都 610074)
[摘 要]保险公司经营绩效综合评价既是一个方法论研究,也是一个基础理论研究。在全面风险管理的基础上提升保险公司的综合绩效是未来保险公司可持续发展的必由之路。本文基于全面风险管理的视角,构建了保险公司经营绩效综合评价指标体系,采用我国2010年的保险公司财务数据进行主成分分析,发现全面风险管理因素在综合绩效评价中不容忽视,总体上寿险公司的综合经营绩效高于财险公司,外资保险公司的综合经营绩效高于中资保险公司。
[关键词]全面风险管理;保险公司;经营绩效;主成分分析
Comprehensive Evaluation of the Performance of Insurance Companies in China
Sun Rong,Wang Chao
(School of Insurance,Southwestern University of Finance and Economics,Chengdu,Sichuan 610074)
Abstract:Comprehensive evaluation of the performance of an insurance company involves researches on both methodology and fundamental theories of insuranceIt is an inevitable path for insurer to attain sustainable development through enhancing its comprehensive performance on the basis of comprehensive enterprise risk managementBased on the enterprise risk management theory,this paper developed an index system to evaluate the performance of insurance companies,whereby the performance of sampled Chinese insurance companies in 2010 was examined and compared by means of principal component analysisThe results showed that comprehensive enterprise risk management was a factor not be ignoredIn general,life insurance companies performed better than nonlife insurers and foreignfunded insurance companies did better than Chinesefunded ones
Key words:enterprise risk management; insurance company; performance; principal component analysis
孙蓉在《保险研究》上发表的其他文章:
我国保险公司X效率的实证研究——以中资财险公司为例
刘 铮 张春海
(对外经济贸易大学保险学院,北京 100029)
[摘 要]借鉴世界最新X效率研究方法,运用SFA方法对2007年~2010年我国市场总份额超过90%的16家中资财产保险公司成本X效率、收益X效率、成本规模效率和收益规模效率进行了评估。在模型设定过程中,根据财险公司的特征,分别对投入、产出、投入价格和产出价格变量进行了选择。实证结果显示16家财险公司:(1)成本X 效率呈下降趋势,收益X效率呈上升趋势,且成本X效率下降速度较快;(2)存在规模效率递增,收益规模效率表现不一;(3)国有性质公司在成本X效率上具有优势,上市公司、市场份额较大的公司在收益X效率上具有优势。
[关键词]X效率;SFA;保险业
An Empirical Analysis on the XEfficiency of Chinese Property and Casualty Insurance Companies
Liu Zheng,Zhang Chunhai
(School of Insurance and Economics of University of International Business and Economics,Beijing 100029)
Abstract:On the basis of the latest Xefficiency research method,this paper used the SFA method to assess cost Xefficiency,revenue Xefficiency,cost scale efficiency and revenue scale efficiency of China’s 16 property and casualty insurance companies from 2007 to 2010The combined market share of these 16 companies exceeded 90%According to the characteristics of the property and casualty insurance company,this paper selected input,output,input prices and output prices variables respectively during the model setting processThe empirical result showed that: (1) the cost of Xefficiency had a downward trend while the revenue Xefficiency kept rising,and decline of the cost Xefficiency was faster than the increase of revenue xefficiency; (2) scale efficiency kept increasing while the efficiency of revenue scale showed mixed results; (3) stateowned companies showed advantages in cost Xefficiency while listed ones and ones with larger market share had advantages in revenue Xefficiency
Key words:Xefficiency; SFA; insurance industry
刘铮在《保险研究》上发表的其他文章:
张春海在《保险研究》上发表过的其他文章:
国际再保险公司全球业务管理模式及其借鉴
史鑫蕊
(中国人民大学财政金融学院,北京 100872)
[摘 要]中国再保险市场越发开放的背景下,中国唯一一家国有再保险公司明确提出了国际化的战略取向。对再保险公司的国际化来说,其业务管理模式的选择也将决定着企业国际化进程的兴衰成败。因此,有必要对国际知名再保险公司的全球业务管理模式进行剖析,并结合中国再保险业发展的现实,提出针对中国再保险企业全球业务管理模式的建议。
[关键词]再保险;业务管理模式;借鉴意义
The Global Business Management Model of International Reinsurance Companies and Its Implications
Shi Xinrui
(The School of Finance of Renmin University of China,Beijing 100872)
Abstract:As the Chinese reinsurance market is opening to a larger extent, China Reinsurance (Group) Corporation, the only stateowned reinsurance company in China, explicitly put forwards its internationalization strategyFor the internationalization of a reinsurance company,the choice of business model plays a key role in the process of internationalizationBased on the respective analysis and comparison of the global business management models of representative reinsurance companies in the world, and combining with the development and current situation of Chinese reinsurance industry, this article presented some suggestions on the choice of global business management model to the Chinese reinsurance company
Key words:reinsurance; business management model; reference significance
史鑫蕊在《保险研究》上发表过的其他文章:
航空旅客责任保险研究
郝秀辉 刘海安
(中国民航大学航空法律与政策研究中心,天津 300300)
[摘 要]航空旅客责任保险是航空运输企业不可或缺的风险管理工具之一。其是否具有强制保险的性质,体现为不同的立法例,我国立法应基于对航空旅客的充分保护将航空旅客责任保险规定为强制保险。航空旅客责任险以航空承运人对旅客的损害赔偿责任为保险标的,而赔偿责任的成就要件应包括受害人须具备旅客身份、发生了航空保险事故和旅客已遭受损害。为保障航空旅客责任保险的强制性,立法应明确规定与其相辅相成的最低保险责任限额。航空旅客责任险的除外责任事项也可通过投保人附加保费的方式由保险人另行承保,但在约定除外责任事项时,应对“被保险航空器搭载之乘客总数超过保单所载明的最大乘客总数”和“被保险航空器由保单记载的飞行员之外的人驾驶”等重要事项给予特别解释和说明,而且也会常常引用伦敦航空保险市场的两项专用特别除外事项。
[关键词]航空旅客;损害赔偿;航空事故;责任保险
Study on Liability Insurance of Air Passengers
Hao Xiuhui,Liu Haian
(Aviation Law and Policy Research Center,Civil Aviation University of China,Tianjin 300300)
Abstract:Aviation passenger liability insurance is one of the indispensable riskmanagement instruments in aviation transportation industryWhether it is compulsory in nature depends on different legislation systemsIn order to guarantee full protection to aviation passengers,China should stipulate aviation passenger liability insurance as compulsory insuranceThe insurable subject matter of passenger liability insurance is the carrier’s compensation obligation for passenger damages,and the conditions for payments include the victims being passengers,the occurrence of aviation accident and the existence of damages to passengersTo further strengthen the compulsory nature of this business a minimum liability amount should also be stipulated in legislationThe exclusions of aviation passenger insurance can be covered by insurer on condition that the applicant pay extra premium accordingly When arranging exclusion provisions,articles of “insured aircraft carrying passengers over policy specified maximum total number of passengers” and “insured aircraft flown by the pilot other than recorded in the policy” and other important matters should be given special explanations and instructions in insurance contractIt is also a common practice to quote two special exclusions in London aviation insurance market
Key words:aviation passengers; compensation for damages; aviation accidents; liability insurance
保险资金投资收益目标对资产价格影响研究
刘相波 邱志刚 孙 伟
(中国人民大学汉青经济与金融高级研究院,北京 100872)
[摘 要]通过资产定价理论模型分析了保险资金投资收益目标对资产价格的影响。保险资金的投资收益目标在本文中被分为内生与外生两种。内生投资收益目标适用于市场上保险公司数量较少且规模较大的情况,其中每家保险公司将会关注其竞争对手的投资收益;外生投资收益目标适用于市场上保险公司数量较多、竞争激烈的情况,此时各保险公司均会将自身投资收益的目标设置为超越某基准指数。本文对两种情况分别进行了分析,并通过对两种投资收益目标进行对比分析,发现内生相对业绩对资产价格的影响取决于股利和理赔风险之间的关系,而外生相对业绩对资产价格的影响取决于外生相对业绩和每家保险公司平均需求之间的关系。
[关键词]保险资金投资;相对业绩;资产定价
A Theoretical Research on the Impacts of Investment Yield Target on Asset Price
Liu Xiangbo,Qiu Zhigang,Sun Wei
(Hanqing Advanced Institute of Economics and Finance of RENMIN University,Beijing 100872)
Abstract:This paper studied the impact of investment yield targets on asset prices by applying asset pricing modelsWe considered two different yield targets: endogenous targets and exogenous targetsThe endogenous target was suitable for the situation that there were a few insurance companies in a large market,and each insurance company cared about its relative standing among the peer groupHowever,exogenous target was suitable for a highly competitive insurance market with a large number of insurers,and each insurance company tried to beat a designated benchmarkThrough analyzing these two cases and comparing the two targets,the paper concluded that the impacts of endogenous relative performance on asset prices was determined by the relationship between share dividend and claim payment risks,whereas the impacts of exogenous relative performance on asset prices was determined by the relationship between the relative performance and the average needs of each insurance companies
Key words:investment of insurance funds; relative performance; asset price
大病保险补偿模式的思考
——基于天津市城乡居民住院数据的实证分析
朱铭来 宋占军 王 歆
(南开大学经济学院,天津 300071)
[摘 要]2012年8月,国务院六部委共同发布《关于开展城乡居民大病保险工作的指导意见》,目前各地政府正在积极筹划大病保险制度的具体实施方案。本文以指导意见中关于大病保险补偿模式的规定为切入点,基于天津市城乡居民住院医疗费用数据,从起付线、报销比例、封顶线等方面模拟分析不同补偿模式设计对于减轻人民群众大病医疗负担的作用和对医保基金支付能力的影响,以期为我国各地区制定和完善大病保险政策提供一定的参考价值,并促进我国大病保险制度的长期稳健、可持续发展。
[关键词]大病保险;补偿模式;保障水平;基金平衡
The Interpretation and Analysis of the Compensation Patterns for Major Illness Medical Insurance Policies
——An Empirical Study Based on the Hospitalization Data of Residents in Tianjin
Zhu Minglai,Song Zhanjun,Wang Xin
(The School of Economics of Nankai University,Tianjin 300071)
Abstract:In August 2012,six ministries of the Central Government of China issued “The Guidance on the Major Illness Medical Insurance for Residents both in Rural and Urban Areas”Currently,many local governments are working on the design of detailed plans to implement the major illness medical insurance policiesIn this paper,using the hospitalization data of residents in Tianjin,we simulated different deductibles,reimbursement ratio and upperlimits to analyze the effect of different compensation patterns on the outofpocket burden of residents and the financial pressure of the basic medical insurance fundWe hoped that our findings could provide some suggestions to the policymakers of local governments and make the major illness medical insurance system more steady and sustainable
Key words:major illness medical insurance; compensation patterns; coverage level; fund balance
朱铭来在《保险研究》上发表过的其他文章:
论保险合同免责条款和保险人明确说明义务——《保险法》第17条和第19条的理解和适用
中国长期护理保障制度的财政负担
——基于德、日社会保险模式的测算
陈 璐 徐南南
(南开大学经济学院风险管理与保险学系,天津 300070)
[摘 要]应用我国的实际数据,在考虑城乡“二元”经济特点的基础上,考察长期护理纳入我国社会保险制度的适用性,采用微观仿真的方法,分别参照德国和日本的长期护理社会保险融资模式,模拟测算出1995年~2010年的长期护理社保缴费率水平处于007%~026%之间,在16年间增长271倍,在此基础上比较分析由于缴费人群和护理补贴财政负担待遇上的差异对于缴费率的影响,为我国今后构建长期护理保障融资制度提供决策参考。
[关键词]长期护理;财政负担;社会保险
Fiscal Burden of Long Term Care Social Insurance System in China
——Measurement Based on Social Insurance Systems of Germany and Japan
Chen Lu,Xu Nannan
(School of Economics,Nankai University,Tianjin 300071 )
Abstract:This paper analyzed the applicability to include long term care into our social insurance system,taking into consideration the urbanrural dualistic economic structure characteristicsBy simulating the long term care social insurance financing schemes of Germany and Japan,we worked out that the long term care social insurance contributions were between 007%-026 during the period of 1995 to 2010,and it increased 271 times in 16 yearsOn the basis of the above research,we analyzed the impacts of the differences of participants,care subsidies and financial burden on contribution ratio,hoping that it will serve as useful references for China to establish long term care insurance financing system in the future
Key words:long term care; financial sustainability; social insurance
陈璐在《保险研究》上发表过的其他文章:
徐南南在《保险研究》上发表过的其他文章:
保险公司投资养老社区的策略选择
欧新煜 赵希男
(东北大学工商管理学院,辽宁 沈阳 110819)
[摘 要]为有效应对人口老龄化,政府积极引导和支持社会力量兴办各类养老服务设施,民政部门、个人和非营利组织、保险公司、房地产开发企业、医疗机构及国际资本和外资机构等投资主体纷纷涉足养老社区。通过SWOT分析和与其他投资主体的竞争优势比较,发现保险公司投资养老社区在品牌声誉、资金实力、客户资源、配套及资源整合等方面具有独特的竞争优势,这就决定了保险公司直接投资养老社区应当采用集中差异化策略,间接投资养老社区的基本经营策略是长期持有获取稳定的分红,但也不排除在个别情形下的短线获利了结。
[关键词]保险公司;养老社区;机构养老;竞争优势;经营策略
The Analysis of Insurance Company’s Strategies for Investing in Retirement Community
Ou Xinyu,Zhao Xinan
(School of Business Administration,Northeastern University,Shenyang,Liaoning 110819)
Abstract:To respond to the population aging trend,Chinese government actively guides and supports various social forces to establish service facilities for elderly peopleDifferent investors such as civil administration departments,individual and nonprofit organizations,insurance companies,real estate developers,medical institutions and international capital and foreign institutions have crowded into the field of retirement community developmentSWOT analyses and competitive advantage comparison with other investors showed that insurance companies had unique competitive advantages in terms of brand name,financial strength,customer base and resources integrationAll these advantages indicated that insurance companies should adopt a focused differentiation strategy in directly investing in retirement community and a longterm holding strategy for steady dividends in indirectly investing in retirement community,which didn’t exclude the possibility of taking profit in isolated cases
Key words:insurance company; retirement community; pension agency; comparative advantages; operation strategies